historical newsletter 1: Halloween, 2003

Before I get back into these amateur newsletters, via "bamboo thoughts", I'll relay previous letters...

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Date: Fri, 31 Oct 2003 14:49:13 -0800

Friends,

This has been a weird Fall - that's the only way I can describe it.
Fire's in la-la-land, hurricanes over-running Western Pennsylvania
(albeit severely diminished), a very pink aurora borealis visible
from my backyard last night...and a stock market full of investors
wondering whether 7.2% GDP growth means a strong 2004 or imminent
increases in the Fed funds rate.

For the past nine months, semiconductors have led the NASDAQ from
zero to sixty in 4 seconds; while they look to continue on up, some
fear that they've come too far too fast (ISSI, LEXR, SSTI, SNDK,
etc). Data storage seems to have lagged the upswing a bit...and will
probably lag a little bit more (BRCD, MCDTA, EMC, etc.)...thought
Network Appliance has been staging quite a comeback (NTAP).
Small/micro caps have been doing very well and will probably continue
to do so...but there are so many, whom do you follow? (e.g., BCSI,
NSO, SOFO, etc.)

So, where will the action run next? Obviously in many directions:
as corporate/governmental spending picks up, telecom is rising,
network appliances are coming back and software is selling well. So,
just try to find the industries that you can understand (with a bit
of web-reading) and may be able to carry your boat up with the tide.
One of those, for me, is wireless products (wi-fi, GPS, etc.). I've
found three interesting "wireless" companies: At Road Inc (ARDI),
Proxim Corp (PROX) and WaveRider Communications Inc (WAVC.OB).

At Road weaves together GPS and wireless tech to assist companies in
managing their mobile workforce (truckers, etc.). Although ARDI was
recently beaten up by a Piper-Jaffray analyst rating, their rev's and
income (decreasing net loss) have been advancing (lessening) nearly
every quarter, and they have a nice debt:asset ratio. Proxim and
WaveRider both install Wi-Fi networks for companies and governments,
using a technology called non-line-of-sight wireless networking.
Proxim (Sunnyvale, CA), for example, bought out ORiNOCO (wireless
networking equipment) and has a contract to outfit Panera Bread
stores with Wi-Fi Hotspot networking. WaveRider, a Toronto company,
in the other CA, is selling it's tech to municipalities and others
looking to provide wireless internet access. Both PROX and WAVC are
in the penny-stock territory: sub-$2 prices and lots of
liquidity...but both are pure-play wireless concerns. ARDI is
currently at about $12.50 and has a much smaller float at about 19.5
m shares...which means to me greater potential for future splits as
the price moves higher.

As always, I've found that the greatest research tool around is
Finance.Yahoo.com. They've added technical charting and a pretty
decent stock screening tool.

Have a great Fall!