Bamboo cultivation can be a metaphor for life:
sometimes you have to pay attention, others you have to leave it alone to thrive by itself.
Bamboo, Taijiquan, living in Pittsburgh, part of the human family.

Tuesday, November 08, 2005

phyllostachys twelve: picking up, moving on

Hurricane Season, 2005, has just about left the stage. Civil unrest (aside from certain invasions) is just about to take center stage. And, the Northern Hemisphere is just about to weather another winter. Although the possibility of higher fuel prices is waning with the memory (in non-affected areas) of Katrina, Wilma, Beta, etc., higher energy costs are here to stay.

How, then, can we afford these prices? By working a little bit harder, a few longer hours (easier during the shorter days of Winter), and with more intent to a warmer (or at least more solvent) future.

Working harder is easy for me to say...I have had a string of decent jobs over the past two decades, each of which seem to have helped pay the bills and allowed me to put some away for a rainy (or graying) day. But what about those people who are under-employed, ill-employed (just barely suited to the task) or not employed? It's easy to say "get a job"...but the great leveler is that we may each face a point of uncertainty in our lives in which we don't know which way to turn, where the next meal, roof or paycheck is going to come from.

At my level (such as it is), it seems easy for me to take solace in learning: I know, from education in the past, that I can read, study and learn much of that which I'll need to get ahead...and learn on-the-job that which I haven't learned yet. For self-directed as well as community-guided learning, a great leveler was the public library...and more recently, the Internet: both provide easy access to copious amounts of information to anyone willing to (1) walk into a library (learn how to open a web browser), (2) know how to read (how to search) and (3) find gobs of information that you need to learn from or are having fun learning from.

But as economics or nature remove access to such excellent public institutions (thanks, in the U.S. to Andrew Carnegie, among others), we are left with challenges as to how to get the information to the masses....without exposing paper to the elements. Proliferation, therefore, of computer technology to the masses, with a built-in browser linked to the ever-expanding presence of a search engine (e.g., Google) seems to be a potential answer. Currently, one needs to be literate to access the media on a computer....soon, however, video (and, on the horizon, VR?) and 3D interaction will allow greater numbers to access all the information they need to improve themselves (and hopefully not blow up the rest of us -- a very real concern in a world of open information and relatively open borders/airspace).

So, the key to bringing the masses along with the "digital haves" is to encourage increasingly better methods of education, increasing levels of health (thanks to orgs like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation) and increasing access to the digital libraries of the world.

..phyllostachys.



2005 Hurricane Names

The Gates Foundation

Adam Smith on Wikipedia

Sunday, August 28, 2005

phyllostachys eleven: Do you hear the winds of change?

Change is coming...can you hear the surf recede, with the fish flopping on the beach of your life?

How do you encourage your peers that saving all that they can versus spending all that they can is the course of action they should be pursuing? I don't know...I think we each have to come to that realization in our own time...constant reminders from friends and media can begin to be somewhat nagging. But that realization must be there - hopefully sooner than later.

I hear the winds blowing in my ears: Greenspan is retiring, metals and oil are priced way high, China and India need more energy resources...as the industrial focus moves across the Pacific and Indian oceans, Western religion is on the wane (just as it was 1700 years ago), Eastern religion is as strong and thriving as if the past 1300 years had not just passed, the earth is slowly warming up, with polar caps shrinking and water levels rising...and we're continually discovering more Solar System objects which may cross Earth's future path.

All we can do is continue to learn, and exhort others to do the same. A friend has issues with alcohol and cardiovascular disease...a dangerous combination. As a friend, I can just support and encourage more water intake vs. alcohol...something we all should strive for.

I picked up a used book last night for 50 cents, at the used book shelf at Apple Hill Playhouse in Delmont, PA (just before the curtain rose on Neil Simon's "The Sunshine Boys"): "The Interpretation of Financial Statements," by Benjamin Graham and Charles McGolrick (1955). This is a cool little book intended to privide any investor or teacher with standard insight into how a company's financial statements should read...and as a possible introduction to the more in-depth analysis of investments in Graham's "Security Analysis." One of my primary gauges for the health of a company is the "current ration," or current assets to current liabilities. Graham points out "When a company is in a sound position, the current assets well exceed the current liabilities, indicating that the company will have no difficulty in taking care of its current debts as they mature." Graham takes it a bit farther by excluding inventory (depending on how an enterprise treats inventory) in what's call an "acid test" of the "quick assets" (exclusive of inventory).

Knowing your way around a company's balance/income/cashflow statements can provide quick insight (though only a snapshot) into the apparent health of a company, Enron or Francisco d'Anconia (of San Sebastián Mines fame) notwithstanding. My favorite place to review all aspects of a company is Yahoo!'s Finance site, http://finance.yahoo.com. Check it out. :-)

..phyllostachys.

Saturday, May 07, 2005

phyllostachys ten: John Maynard Keynes

An acquaintance at the public health club where I swim asked me "who do you think are the greatest investors?" My answer was that other than an investing great like Warren Buffett, I'd say someone who has amassed wealth by investing time, sweat and money in building their own company - Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Larry Ellison all jump to mind. My acquaintance asked if I'd heard of Keynes.

Well-read investors should have heard of Keynes...and I have, having first been introduced to him by Louis Rukeyser's book-on-tape series on the history of Economics. Keynes was the British Economist known primarily for developing the policies that most readily led the US and Britain out of the woods after the "Great Depression" of the '30's.

According to Time Magazine:
"Keynes' basic idea was simple. In order to keep people fully employed, governments have to run deficits when the economy is slowing. That's because the private sector won't invest enough. As their markets become saturated, businesses reduce their investments, setting in motion a dangerous cycle: less investment, fewer jobs, less consumption and even less reason for business to invest. The economy may reach perfect balance, but at a cost of high unemployment and social misery. Better for governments to avoid the pain in the first place by taking up the slack."
The Time 100

My acquaintance said that in addition to being an effective and well-respected ecomonist, was also a very successful investor. Said Keynes, "Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others," which is, of course, what the markets are all about - successfully navigating the torrential runs of human emotion in trading. After this conversation, I went home and did some Google searches on Keynes and investing....and found some interesting guidelines...which sounded eerily like a quote from the Oracle of Omaha. Now, of course, I cannot refind that quote...I'll relay in a later post.


On the subject of books, I noticed that my acquaintance had brought a book for reading on the treadmill. He showed me Jeremy Siegel's new book, The Future for Investors. I'd never heard of Siegel, but have since learned that he's a Wharton School finance professor who wrote Stocks for the Long Run in 1994, in which he touted that stocks have been the best investment vehicle since 1802 -- he touted this just before one of America's greatest bull markets. Siegel has his own website (see below) and was featured in a WSJ article on 05/05/05 about his new theory that retiring baby boomers will sell all their assets...and the markets won't be saved unless billions of Indian and Chinese investors step in. A controversial idea, of course....but how the heck else do you get people to argue and plan for the future? :-)


..phyllostachys.

BTW, today is the inauguration of the use of Google's adsense on this site...let's see how we do. :-)

For more on Keynes, see:
The History of Ecomonic Thought website

For more on Siegel, go to:
Jeremy Siegel's website

Tuesday, April 19, 2005

phyllostachys nine: Karlgaard Rules

Rich Karlgaard is an interesting writer - he had been the Forbes editor in charge of that tabloid of the tech boom, quarterly periodical Forbes ASAP - he's now editor of the Digital Rules column in Forbes. His most recent column, titled "Ten Laws of the Modern World," lists the following (much like, and as applicable as, the Ten Commandments of the Judeo-Christian faith):

Moore's Law
The Back Side of Moore's Law
Andy and Bill's Law
Metcalfe's Law
Gilder's Law: Winner's Waste
Ricardo's Law
Wriston's Law
The Laffer Curve
Drucker's Law
Ogilvy's Law

Follow your mouse here....

..Phyllostachys.

Sunday, April 17, 2005

phyllostachys eight: finding your center

Have you ever felt that you've lost your center and aren't sure where to start? Well, like many of you, I've lost that center many times...and have learned from a few very scholarly people where to find that center once I've lost it. It exists within you...but can only be found via a very circuitous process...which may involve some form of centering activity, such as running, swimming, solo dancing....or perhaps solo tai chi.

The market is down right now, after 2.5 awesome years of tortured rise, so this is a good chance to regroup, find your center, find where your resources are best utilized. :-)

Find a tai chi teacher.


Yang Family Style Long Form





First Section

1. Commencement
2. Grasp Sparrow's Tail
3. Single Whip
4. Raise Hands
5. White Crane Spreads its Wings
6. Twist Step Brush Left Knee
7. Play Chinese Guitar
8. Twist Step Brush Left Knee
9. Twist Step Brush Right Knee
10. Twist Step Brush Left Knee
11. Play Chinese Guitar
12. Deflect Downward
13. Parry
14. Punch
15. Apparent Closure
16. Cross Hands

Second Section

17. Embrace the Tiger and Return to the Mountain
18. Grasp Sparrow's Tail
19. Punch Under Elbow
20. Repulse Monkey (5 times)
21. Diagonal Flying
22. Raise Hands
23. White Crane Spreads It's Wings
24. Push Needle to Sea Bottom
25. Fan Through Back
26. Turn and Throw out Fist
27. Deflect Downward, Parry & Punch
28. Grasp Sparrow's Tail
29. Single Whip
30. Wave Arms Like Clouds (5 times)
31. Single Whip
32. High Pat on Horse
33. Separate Hands
34. Kick with Right Foot (toe)
35. Separate Hands
35. Kick with Left Foot (toe)
36. Turn and Kick with Left Heel
37. Twist Step Brush Left Knee
38. Twist Step Brush Right Knee
39. Twist Step, Brush Left Knee and Punch Downward
40. Turn and Throw Out Fist
41. Deflect Downward, Parry and Punch
42. Kick up with the Right Heel
43. Fight Tiger (Left and Right)
44. Kick up with the Right Heel
45. Club Ears (Wind Blows by Ears)
46. Side Kick with Left Foot
47. Turn 180 deg. and Side Kick with Right Foot
48. Deflect Downward, Parry and Punch
49. Apparent Closure
50. Cross Hands

Third Section

51. Embrace the Tiger and Return to the Mountain
52. Diagonal Single Whip
53. Part the Wild Horse's Mane (5 times)
54. Grasp Sparrow's Tail
55. Single Whip
56. Fair Maiden Works the Shuttles (four angles)
57. Grasp Sparrow's Tail
58. Single Whip
59. Wave Arms Like Clouds (5 times)
60. Snake Creeps down
61. Golden cock stands on left leg
62. Golden cock stands on right leg
63. Repulse monkey (5 times)
64. Diagonal Flying
65. Raise Hands
66. White Crane Spreads It's Wings
67. Push Needle to Sea Bottom
68. Fan Through Back
69. Turn and White snake spits out tongue
70. Deflect Downward, Parry & Punch
71. Grasp Sparrow's Tail
72. Single Whip
73. Wave Arms Like Clouds (5 times)
74. Single Whip
75. High Pat on Horse
76. Five fingers into cave mouth
77. Turn and punch to groin
78. Grasp Sparrow's Tail
79. Single Whip
80. Snake Creeps down
81. Step up to form crossed stars
82. Step back to ride the tiger
83. Turn and perform Lotus kick
85. ???
86. Deflect Downward, Parry and Punch
87. Apparent Closure
88. Cross Hands

[Perform starting to the right,
then second time through to the left.]


My original "blog"

...(Geocities was pre-blog, and yet very much fostered the same sort of activity)

...and the tai chi component thereof...

Wednesday, April 13, 2005

phyllostachys seven: Springing...down, in '05

Springtime 2005 is upon us - in the northern end of the Western Hemisphere, this means chirping birds, crocuses and daffodills, spring cleaning of the gardens, screens on the windows (for the moister part of the continent), screaming motorcycles on all the roadways...and listening to your neighbors scream at the local sports teams in the comfort of their living rooms (but now, of course, with the windows wide open). :-)

I had one tub of Phyllostachys Vivax sort of wintering over...but not really well protected, so it's now fried. I love having a sampling of those big, dark green waxy leaves close to our patio...so, I'll have to dig up another tub candidate. My two stands of bamboo (one the Vivax, the other a smaller member of the Phyllo. species) are now rustling more and showing signs of both winter burn and spring-time life. I'll have to begin culling out the culms and digging at the rhizomes soon, while the soil is moist, to curb the vivaciousness of this unusual garden plant (hence the name "vivax" for the larger specimen).

My investing has been in the doldrums lately. Traditionally, the wind is supposed to die down in mid-August, when most families are thinking of that last-hurrah vacation before Labor Day. But the wind has died down right now. I'm adrift (or, rather, in the case of some SEC-inquiry stocks, looking over the edge of a potential whirlpool). I rode part of the oil-lust wave, via a goodly amount of BPT (Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust). I sold recently near it's high, having been spooked by chatter on Yahoo!'s message board for BPT, as well as a growing feeling that, while I think the price of crude will stay high for awhile, we might have run into the high end of the spectrum. When everyone else realizes this, the rising tide of oil stocks will come back down a bit. BPT, of course, is a two-edged investment. As the price rises...your equity investment appreciates...but lots of small investers are also seeking the high dividend yield that BPT traditionally provides...and this yield falls away as the security appreciates.

Tech stocks are my usual refuge in times of fear...I fear being out of them for too long, and I fear diving back into them. :-) SSTI is a very attractive company in the Flash RAM industry at this point - they're at their 52-week low, with strong sales and tons of cash (though reporting slightly weaker earnings), but the rash of downgrades attracts contrarian investors such as LongBow Research (out of Independence, Ohio). LongBow Research recently upgraded SSTI (from neutral to buy) and I assume that they did this out of contrarian interest (their website says that they watch for "critical trends" in various industries so as to provide their "institutional" clients with info on buying and selling). I e-mailed one of the tech researchers at Longbow, but have not heard anything back.

Another interesting Flash industry participant, which is at the top of its game in the same way that AAPL is, is SNDK. SNDK has $1.5B in sales, $1.3B in cash, no debt (well, $150M in long-term debt...but that's more of an asset, even though its on the lower side of the balance sheet), a respectable TTM p/e of 19.8 and a forward p/e of 17.5, and a very profitable stable of products and patents (being the creator of CompactFLASH, etc.). One of SNDK's downsides was that $100M in stock was stolen by a trusted law firm's employee on the Pacific Rim (Singapore or Taiwan, not sure which)...but that is slowly be paid back by a very chagrined (and short of cash) law firm - SNDK bounced back very handsomely from that loss with barely a glance backward, as it blows past its fabless competition (ahem, LEXR).

So why the doldrums, you say? Well my perennial favourite since the go-go days of the NASDAQ bubble has been Blue Coat Systems. I've been following and putting my money where my mouth is with BCSI ever since it was CFLO (CacheFlow). As CacheFlow, they marketed web caching servers. With the collapse of telecomm and the popping of the aforementioned bubble, CFLO re-created themselves into BCSI and altered their product (through internal work and acquisitions) to provide web-filtering, traffic control, WinProxy, AntiVirus and AntiSpam solutions, all in addition to a caching component -- all during the past 3 years. They were way up during the CFLO days, then way down before becoming BCSI, then way up for no apparent reason [other than following insider buying, that is], then down again (this latter downturn is now sparking class-action suits) and up again. We are now in the course of the last "up again"...but SEC news of investigations is interrupting the flow here....so despite strong fundamentals, it's anybody's guess as to whether buying now makes awesome sense...or not. :-)

Happy sailing!

Have some comments about my blogs here? Leave a comment (you don't have to be a member to do so).

Phyllostachys.


Longbow's SSTI upgrade

Longbow's Home on the web

Tuesday, February 15, 2005

Phyllostachys Six: Valentines Day, 2005

2-15-2005 -- Although I'm writing and posting this on the 15th, Valentines Day is still very much on my mind. Flowers, lovers, children, cupids, chocolate and unclean thoughts all rolled up into one holiday! Very powerful is the emotion of love...and if you're open to it's power, it can carry you a long way along the river of life! Everyone has to, of course, sort out for themselves if they're in love or in lust. Discussion topic for the next time you're at a party of mixed sexes: are the two really all that different? ;-)

Valentines Day brought another kind of love to the fore: AAPL hit another new high. Where will it stop...and what the 'ell do I care? I watch it bottom out at 12 last year (after buying in at about 24 5 years ago) and thought that I really should kick some more capital in...but you know how everyone says not to average down (which I do all the time anyways)? Well, I didn't average down with AAPL...and now I'm waiting for a second split to encourage more buyers. Big :-)!

Check out SCHK - http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SCHK.OB&d=t - Schick Technologies makes digital cameras for the dental crowd. Their balance sheet rocks! (Never thought I'd use that phrase...but here it really applies). I originally bought at 8.50...and now bought again at 17. Looks like a stable techology, to provide a long, 5-year market rise.

Also, check out GRU, parent of the new http://www.answers.com. Purported to be the next Google (in more ways than one?), Answers.com could carry small investors for quite a ride. GRU's 52-week is 4.40 and 28.50...and it's now playing around the upper end of the range.

Does anyone know of anyone "sculpting" in bamboo? Ideas keep percolating through my noggin...but gotta spend some time with my culms before I subject any of them to my sculpting ideas. :=-)

..phyllostachys.

Twitter: alex_landefeld


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